Statistics and Reliability Meeting: September 13

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Statistics and Reliability Meeting: September 13

Please forward this invitation to your friends and colleagues.

The ASQ Silicon Valley Statistics and Reliability Discussion Group cordially invites you to attend an outstanding FREE presentation. Welcome IEEE and ASA members.

TOPIC:  INNOVATION: What is it and how does it affect quality in our changing world.

SPEAKERS:  Mr. Chuck Mignosa

Chair and Moderator: Dr. John Flaig
Assistant Chair: Dr. Don Mintz
Corporate Sponsor: Applied Materials
Sponsor: Dr. Charles Chen from Applied Materials

 

ABSTRACT:

The speed of change today is so fast and extensive that it is impossible
to keep up with it.

The introduction of Artificial Intelligence (AI) into many, if not all of
our products, is presenting new challenges that the traditional tools of
Quality are inadequately equipped to handle.

This presentation reviews how quality has evolved over the years and what
new challenges exist today. You will learn of the successes and failures
of today’s innovative products and we will examine Einstein’s Statement
“We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we
created them”.

BIOGRAPHY:

Mr. Mignosa has over 40 years of diversified experience in high technology, aerospace, telecommunications, food processing and biomedical device industries. He has been an RAB/QSA Certified Lead Auditor Trainer (Certificate No. LA576).

He has 25 years of experience in IBM holding patents in solid lubricants. He was the Project Manager in charge of implementing quality systems. He is a certified course developer and has developed many customized courses; some examples are Total Quality Management, Continuous Flow Manufacturing, Customer Driven Quality, Statistical Design and Analysis of Experiments, Team Building, Six Sigma, and Communication Skills. He also was involved with IBM’s Six Sigma projects which were designed after Motorola’s program.

He has delivered courses in Management Development, Team Building, Organizational Excellence, Conflict Resolution, the Stephen Covey 7 Habits of Highly Effective People and Principle Centered Leadership, along with many other topics.

After leaving IBM he worked as an independent consultant. He has consulted for and done training with such companies as IBM, SanDisk, Owens Corning, Heinz USA, Siemens Automotive, General Mills, Connors Peripherals, HP, ADAC Labs, and many more. He has been an adjunct instructor with the University of Notre Dame, Nova University and the University of Nevada Las Vegas.

He spent 3 years as the Director of Quality for Cholestech Corporation where he brought them into FDA compliance and registered to ISO9001, and ISO 13485.

He spent 2 years as VP of Quality at P-COM, a telecommunications equipment development company where he reduced out of box failures from 30% to less than 1%.

Mr. Mignosa is President and CEO of Business Systems Architects, L.L.C.  His teams specialize in the design and implementation of business and quality management systems, organizational excellence, continuous improvement Lean/Six Sigma, and strategic planning.  His partners include H. James Harrington of the Harrington Institute and Jerry Mairani of the Institute of Performance Improvement.

In addition to a B.S. in Chemistry from San Jose State University, Mr. Mignosa has completed graduate work in Statistics at Stanford, a Masters in Systems Engineering at Systems Research Institute in New York and Management training with IBM. He is a senior member of ASQ, and is a certified Master Black Belt Trainer.

Please send an RSVP to johnflaig@yahoo.com at least two days prior to the meeting if you plan to attend.

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Statistics and Reliability Meeting: August 9

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Statistics and Reliability Meeting: August 9

Please forward this invitation to your friends and colleagues.

The ASQ Silicon Valley Statistics and Reliability Discussion Group cordially invites you to attend an outstanding FREE presentation. Welcome IEEE and ASA members.

TOPIC:  Random-Tandem Queues and Reliability Estimation Without Life Data

SPEAKERS:  Dr. Larry George

Chair and Moderator: Dr. John Flaig
Assistant Chair: Dr. Don Mintz
Corporate Sponsor: Applied Materials
Sponsor: Dr. Charles Chen from Applied Materials

 

ABSTRACT:

Ships and return counts are statistically sufficient to make nonparametric estimates of field reliability and failure rate functions. But life data contains more information. Is it worthwhile to track everything by serial number to get life data? Compare alternative data estimators’ bias, variances, covariances, entropy,              (–∑p(i)log(p(i)) quantifies information in probability distributions better than variance), and cross-entropy (Kullback-Leibler divergence) guides portfolio allocation to reliability data alternatives!

What if failures are not dead forever; i.e., repairable, renewal, or recurrent processes? Superposition of staggered-start-cohort recurrent processes’ failure counts is statistically sufficient. M88-A1 engines, Nigerian refinery pumps. Compare alternative data.

Is cost of s(â(t|ships and returns)) > Cost of s(â(t)|life data)) (â(t) is failure rate function estimate.)? Ships and returns counts data required by GAAP costs ~$0.00 and preserves privacy (e.g., AIDS patients’ names). Cost of uncertainty in an actuarial forecast, ∑â(t)n(t), (n(t) is installed base of age t) and depends on

s2[∑â(t)n(t)] = ∑s2(â(t))n(t)2 + ∑∑n(s)n(t)Cov(â(s), â(t))

Risk equity: shouldn’t consumer risk = producer risk!? The Producer has the advantage of better info from life data. The Consumer has to depend on consumer groups, lawyers, and government.

Progress in Artificial Stupidity reports on “How to Make Data Fit Weibull;

Verification and Validation of Alternative Facts” and 

“How to make a constant failure rate = 1/MTBF”

BIOGRAPHY:

 

Please send an RSVP to johnflaig@yahoo.com at least two days prior to the meeting if you plan to attend.

 

Statistics and Reliability Meeting: July 12

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Statistics and Reliability Meeting: July 12

Please forward this invitation to your friends and colleagues.

The ASQ Silicon Valley Statistics and Reliability Discussion Group cordially invites you to attend an outstanding FREE presentation. Welcome IEEE and ASA members.

TOPIC:  DOE Panel Discussion (Bring your questions)

SPEAKERS: Dr. John Flaig, Dr. Kien Wong, Dr. Don Mintz, Mr. Lester Wollman

Chair and Moderator: Dr. John Flaig
Assistant Chair: Dr. Don Mintz
Corporate Sponsor: Applied Materials
Sponsor: Dr. Charles Chen from Applied Materials

 

OBJECTIVE:

Bing all your questions — the things you always wanted to know about DOE, but were afraid to ask. The panel will try to answer the audience’s questions or provide suggestions where they might find the answers.

SUGGESTED QUESTIONS:

  1. Does OFAT mean I should consider going on a diet?
  2. How do I decide if I have too many or to few factors (x)?
  3. How do I know if I picked the right response variables (y)?
  4. How do I know that factor (x) affects a response variable (y)?
  5. Does DOE require the process to be in-control to work?
  6. Do I need a gage capability study for each variable in the DOE?
  7. Does it make much difference if the responses are discrete or continuous?
  8. How do I estimate the noise in the system?
  9. What are controllable, semi-controllable, and uncontrollable variables?
  10. Why do replicates? What about repeats? Is there a difference?
  11. Why randomize? What should you do if you can’t randomize?
  12. What is blocking? Is this something we do in football?
  13. What is an alias and how do we determine them?
  14. Is one experiment enough to find the answer?
  15. Should we confirm our results in production mode?
  16. Is there a covariate in the house? How about a doctor?
  17. What is design resolution?
  18. What are full and fractional factorial designs?
  19. What are first and second order designs?
  20. What about simplex designs? Is this a personality disorder?
  21. What are robust designs?
  22. What are response surface designs?
  23. What are algorithmic optimal designs (i.e., D and I optimal)
  24. How does JMP’s Custom Design work?
  25. How do we estimate “pure” error?
  26. How do we check the homogenous variance assumption?
  27. Should we maintain family unity or kick the kids out?
  28. What is EVOP? Will I need an antibiotic to be cured?
  29. What is uniform precision? Is this some military thing?
  30. What is Orthogonally? If I have it, should I see a doctor?
  31. What is the Sequential Simplex Search Method?
  32. What is GMDH (gmdh.net)? What is the Ivakhnenko polynomial? And how do they apply to screening designs?
  33. What are Definitive Screening Designs?

Please send an RSVP to johnflaig@yahoo.com at least two days prior to the meeting if you plan to attend.

Statistics and Reliability Meeting: June 14

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Statistics and Reliability Meeting: June 14

Please forward this invitation to your friends and colleagues.

The ASQ Silicon Valley Statistics and Reliability Discussion Group cordially invites you to
attend an outstanding FREE presentation. Welcome IEEE and ASA members.

TOPIC:  Systematic Problem Solving

SPEAKER:   John J. Flaig, PhD, FASQ

Chair and Moderator: Dr. John Flaig
Assistant Chair: Dr. Don Mintz
Corporate Sponsor: Applied Materials
Sponsor: Mr. Ravi Chandra from Applied Materials

ABSTRACT:

This talk outlines a structured approach to problem solving. It shows you how to organize the problem solving team and how to generate and analyze data to produce information. You will learn how to attack problems where there is data, where there is no data, and where data must be generated in order to arrive at an effective and efficient solution. The talk covers the basic subjective problem solving tools (brainstorming, five whys, fault tree analysis, and fishbone diagram) plus innovative new techniques such as TRIZ, HU, and quantitative methods like Probabilistic Causality, Causation Theory, Virtual DOE, Data Mining, Neural Networks and Design of Experiments. 

If you have problems to solve, this talk will provide a basic starting point for improving your skills.    

BIOGRAPHY:

John J. Flaig, Ph.D. is a Fellow of the American Society for Quality (ASQ) and is managing director of Applied Technology, a consulting, training, and publishing company (www.e-AT-USA.com and Training BLOG advpst.wordpress.com). He is Chair of the ASQ’s Statistics and Reliability group and was previously Program Chair for the Silicon Valley ASQ’s Annual Quality Conference, the Scholarship and Awards program, and the Education program. His industry experience spans more than forty years where he was employed in everything from small startup operations to some of the largest companies in the world such as Apple, Applied Materials, and Hewlett-Packard. He is Advisor to and Adjunct Professor for the International Technological University. In addition he is Analytics Advisor to 1factory a Supplier Quality Management software company.

Dr. Flaig has published over twenty peer reviewed research papers in areas such as process capability analysis, adaptive control charts, factor effects analysis and SPC, optimal resource allocation, and supplier management. In addition he has published over seventy Quality Technology related articles in the popular press. He was formerly a member of the Editorial Board of Quality Engineering a journal of the ASQ, and Associate Editor of Quality Technology and Quantitative Management a journal of the International Chinese Association of Quantitative Management. 



John has given lectures and seminars in Europe, Asia and throughout the United States. His special interests are in statistical process control, process capability analysis, supplier management, design of experiments, failure mode and effects analysis, variation analysis, systematic problem solving, causation analysis, and process optimization. He holds a doctorate in engineering and technology management from California Southern University, a master’s degree in mathematics from the University of California, and a bachelor’s degree majoring in mathematics and economics from California State Polytechnic University. Dr. Flaig received the 2012 Distinguished Alumnus Award from Cal Poly’s College of Science.

linkedin.com/in/john-j-flaig-ph-d-fasq-5b741

Statistics and Reliability Meeting: May 10

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Please forward this invitation to your friends and colleagues.

The ASQ Silicon Valley Statistics and Reliability Discussion Group cordially invites you to attend an outstanding FREE presentation. Welcome IEEE and ASA members.

TOPIC:  Toward a Reliable, Responsible and Agile Organization

SPEAKER:  Mr. Osama El Meligy

Chair and Moderator: Dr. John Flaig
Assistant Chair: Dr. Don Mintz
Corporate Sponsor: Applied Materials
Sponsor: Mr. Ravi Chandra from Applied Materials

ABSTRACT:

No more is adapting to change an option for the survival of any Organization. Business environment is rapidly changing than ever and the future is increasingly becoming turbulent and unpredictable, thus organizational and Product Lifecycles are shortened and doomed to terminate and be replaced if change is not accounted for. Being agile is now one of the most important attributes in the Organizations Business Strategy if it wants to survive, and sustainability and Resilience are becoming goals of Quality Management systems and Standards that will support the Business Strategy.

The presentation will address a model for a reliable, responsible and sustainable organization based on the integration of 4 models, 1) Quality Improvement Model / PDCA, 2) Speed and Agility Model, 3) Good Governance model, and 4) sustainability model.

BIOGRAPHY:

Eng. Osama El Meligy is a member of ISO/TC 176 since 1999 representing Egypt, a member of TC176/CSAG Chairman Strategic Advisory Group and convener of ISO/TC 176/ (Time, Speed and Agility Task Force). He is a management consultant and owner of Total Quality Company with more than 40 years of international experience in the field of Quality Management standards and management consulting. El Meligy has founded the Egyptian Society for Quality and is the former Secretary General of the Society. Throughout his career, El Meligy has been actively involved in setting new and enhancing existing standardizations on national and regional levels. He worked with more than 300 organizations from different sectors in their strategy, structure, management and operations to improve their performance and sustainably grow by adopting standards and finding new and better ways of doing business. He translated the famous Japanese book “Statistical Methods for Quality Improvement “for Hitushi Kume, into Arabic, and wrote the first Arabic book on Environmental Management Standard ISO 14000.

AREAS OF EXPERTISE:

Quality Management, Risk Management, Corporate Governance, Good Governance of Institutions of the National Quality Infrastructure and Social Responsibility.

Please RSVP johnflaig@yahoo.com at least two days prior to the meeting if you plan to attend.