Statistics and Reliability Meeting: August 9

Statistics and Reliability Meeting: August 9

Please forward this invitation to your friends and colleagues.

The ASQ Silicon Valley Statistics and Reliability Discussion Group cordially invites you to attend an outstanding FREE presentation. Welcome IEEE and ASA members.

TOPIC:  Random-Tandem Queues and Reliability Estimation Without Life Data

SPEAKERS:  Dr. Larry George

Chair and Moderator: Dr. John Flaig
Assistant Chair: Dr. Don Mintz
Corporate Sponsor: Applied Materials
Sponsor: Dr. Charles Chen from Applied Materials



Ships and return counts are statistically sufficient to make nonparametric estimates of field reliability and failure rate functions. But life data contains more information. Is it worthwhile to track everything by serial number to get life data? Compare alternative data estimators’ bias, variances, covariances, entropy,              (–∑p(i)log(p(i)) quantifies information in probability distributions better than variance), and cross-entropy (Kullback-Leibler divergence) guides portfolio allocation to reliability data alternatives!

What if failures are not dead forever; i.e., repairable, renewal, or recurrent processes? Superposition of staggered-start-cohort recurrent processes’ failure counts is statistically sufficient. M88-A1 engines, Nigerian refinery pumps. Compare alternative data.

Is cost of s(â(t|ships and returns)) > Cost of s(â(t)|life data)) (â(t) is failure rate function estimate.)? Ships and returns counts data required by GAAP costs ~$0.00 and preserves privacy (e.g., AIDS patients’ names). Cost of uncertainty in an actuarial forecast, ∑â(t)n(t), (n(t) is installed base of age t) and depends on

s2[∑â(t)n(t)] = ∑s2(â(t))n(t)+ ∑∑n(s)n(t)Cov(â(s), â(t))

Risk equity: shouldn’t consumer risk = producer risk!? The Producer has the advantage of better info from life data. The Consumer has to depend on consumer groups, lawyers, and government.

Progress in Artificial Stupidity reports on “How to Make Data Fit Weibull;

Verification and Validation of Alternative Facts” and 

“How to make a constant failure rate = 1/MTBF”



Please send an RSVP to at least two days prior to the meeting if you plan to attend.


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